| Symbol | Company | Price | Chg | Support | Resistance | Setup | Bias | Chart |
|---|
| Ticker | Company | Price | Chg | Support | Resistance | Setup | Bias | Chart |
|---|
Gold pullback from $5,590 ATH to $5,060–80 support is a structural dip-buy. Strait of Hormuz premium not fully priced out yet. MCX: ₹1,55,000–1,58,000/10g. Enter on volume uptick at support zone.
Trump peace signal is risk-on for crypto. BTC held $63k support. Funding rates neutral on Delta Exchange — healthy long setup. 4H close above $69,500 = next leg to $72k–76k. Do not chase. Wait for $67,500–68,000 dip.
BEL outperformed Nifty by 6.5% yesterday — institutional rotation confirmed. Enter only post-10:00 AM after open stabilises. ₹390 hold + above-average volume = entry trigger. Global rearming is decade-long structural tailwind.
Only enter on confirmed ceasefire/SPR release with Brent below $100. BPCL recovers ₹40–60 in 2 sessions in that scenario. Highest R:R in today’s briefing. Have buy order pre-set before announcement fires.
The Fed faces stagflation: inflation rising (oil CPI >4% Wed) while economy contracts (−92K payrolls). Hiking kills growth; cutting ignites inflation. Central bank paralysis = market's worst outcome. RBI cannot cut with INR at ₹93.50 and inflation threatening 6%. Hold at 6.50% until Q3 2026 minimum.
DXY at 103.8. Each 1% dollar strength = ₹3,000–4,000 Cr FII outflows. Hurt by weak INR: aviation, auto, electronics imports. Helped: pharma, IT, textiles, chemicals (USD revenues). ₹94 = next critical RBI intervention level — breach accelerates FII exit.
Winners: ONGC (+₹8,000–10,000 Cr EBITDA/$10bbl), Oil India, MRPL, Reliance. Losers: IndiGo (fuel 30–45% of costs), BPCL/HPCL/IOC (downstream losses), CONCOR, auto. SPR wildcard: Brent −$15–20 in 48hr on G7 release or ceasefire. Pre-position the OMC recovery.
Trading the Geopolitical Tweet
When a single presidential post moves Nifty 500 points — these are the rules that separate the professional from the amateur.
Trump’s peace signal ≠ confirmed ceasefire. Wait for PRICE to confirm before committing capital. The amateur reacts to headlines. The professional waits for the market to reveal its hand first.
Right now — before ceasefire — define BPCL, HPCL, IndiGo recovery levels, position size, and stop loss. When news hits, execute in seconds. The professional is always prepared before the event.
Wednesday’s CPI: hot = −2%, cool = +2%. You cannot predict it. Reduce size 40–50% before the data. Define what you’ll buy on the dip before it drops. Preparation beats prediction every time.
Buffett holds $334bn cash. Dalio calls cash “the best asset in crisis transitions.” With VIX at 24.93 and binary CPI 2 days away, 40–50% cash is elite capital management — not cowardice.
Stocks green in a broad red market signal institutional rotation. Today: defence up 3–5% while Nifty is down 3%. That 6.5% relative outperformance IS the trade signal. Follow it before everything else.
40+ nations evaluating Tejas, BrahMos, Akash. Solar Industries, BEL, HAL, Bharat Forge. $8–12bn exports by 2028. 5–7 year compounding story completely absent from most sellside models.
▲ Strong Buy — 5Y Horizon50–60 GWh BESS needed by 2030. KPI Green, Amara Raja, Exide, Tata Chemicals. KPI Green’s GUVNL order is the starting gun. 5–10x return potential over 5 years.
▲ Strong Buy — Early StageFeynman chip: 4–8x leap over Blackwell. $40bn+ backlog. Indian IT: TCS, Wipro, Infosys, HCL Tech. 6 days to position before Jensen’s keynote. This is Q1 2026’s most important catalyst.
▲ Position Before Mar 17L&T, IRB, PNC Infratech, KNR Constructions, Dilip Buildcon. Order books at all-time highs. Government backstop. Accumulate on every major dip for a 5-year compounding hold.
▲ Buy — Multi-Year HoldINR at ₹93.50 directly boosts USD revenues. Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, Divi’s. Every 1% INR depreciation = ~0.8% earnings uplift. Structural + tactical winner.
▲ Buy — INR Hedge + StructuralReliance, Adani Green, NTPC, BHEL. 5mn tonnes/year by 2030 target. Accumulate 2025–2027 for a 2030 payoff. Not a trade — a 5-year position building exercise.
◆ Watch — Early StageHolds record $334bn cash — net seller 8 consecutive quarters. Waiting for “wonderful business at a fair price.” Largest positions: Apple, Amex, Occidental. Warned about US fiscal deficits and long-term dollar challenges in latest letter.
Entirely focused on GTC March 17. Feynman chip defines AI infrastructure 3–5 years out. Backlog >$40bn. Speaking on “physical AI” — robotics and industrial automation as the next trillion-dollar wave beyond language models.
Warning about US big debt crisis. Current thesis: long gold, structurally short USD over 5 years. Views Iran crisis as “a symptom, not the disease.” Fiscal deficits + geopolitical fragmentation = reserve currency restructuring within 10 years.
Latest 13F: concentrated Chinese tech (Alibaba, JD.com). Maintains puts on US tech indices. December 2025 stagflation warning now playing out exactly. He was right early — and remains right.
Aggressively accumulating small/midcap defence: Solar Industries, MTAR, Paras Defence. Also specialty chemicals and precision engineering (China+1 beneficiaries). Low turnover, 3–5 year holds. His disclosures are high-signal events.
High-conviction: Elecon Engineering, Mahindra Logistics, Ramco Industries. Calls current crisis “a once-in-five-years buying opportunity.” Advocates systematic SIP into weakness — never trying to call the bottom.
India’s largest solar panel maker, strong PLI order book, 15x EV/EBITDA. 35–50% upside in 12–18 months. Participate.
Multiple institutional block deals at ₹385–395. Foreign buying in defence PSU during crisis = high-conviction signal. Follow the institutional trail.
Elevated GNPA, minimal OFS discount. RBI tight on SFBs. Better capital deployed in defence and BESS names. Skip.
Promoters buying at ₹640–680 in open market. Strong transmission order book. Insider buying in weakness = intrinsic value signal. Watch for further disclosures.
Rights issue at discount explored. Strong EV theme long-term but near-term cash burn. Subscribe only below ₹65/share.
SEBI NBFC rules may force India’s largest-ever IPO. Once-in-a-generation event. Monitor SEBI communications closely.
The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
— Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway
Trump’s peace signal will make the impatient buy tomorrow’s open gap. The patient trader has already built a watchlist at crisis prices, defined entries and stops, and will execute on confirmed dips — or hold cash and do nothing. The most profitable thing you can do right now is plan, not act. The best trades of the next 30 days will be made in the next 48 hours of preparation.
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